Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 22¢ · $925 held · ends Oct 25

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$924.67

Combined PnL

$87.76

Smart Money Entry

18.3¢ → 21.7¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$368.23

Total Shares470

Combined PnL+$32.32

Yes3 traders

Total Value$556.45

Total Shares2,695

Combined PnL+$55.44

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 75¢	$606.47	$368.23	+$32.32	56% 3214-2537 (5751)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$1.6K	$329.54	+$46.05	48% 488-537 (1025)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$750	$153.75	-$9.96	50% 1560-1532 (3092)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$46.42	$73.16	+$19.35	56% 119-92 (211)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$606.47

Value

$368.23

PnL

+$32.32

Record

56%

3214-2537 (5751)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,607.5

Value

$329.54

PnL

+$46.05

Record

48%

488-537 (1025)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$750

Value

$153.75

PnL

-$9.96

Record

50%

1560-1532 (3092)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.42

Value

$73.16

PnL

+$19.35

Record

56%

119-92 (211)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.6%

21.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$324.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

424.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.