Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 47¢ · $715 held · ends Oct 27

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$715.18

Combined PnL

$120.11

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 46.5¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$578.82

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL+$123.32

No2 traders

Total Value$38.24

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$3.2

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$340.26	$457.52	+$117.27	46% 540-625 (1165)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 51.5¢	$124.95	$121.3	+$6.05	55% 191-155 (346)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$121.13	$98.13	-$6.36	38% 273-442 (715)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.5¢	$48.54	$51.03	+$2.38
└ No leg	Noavg 54.9¢	$53.83	$47.1	-$8.73
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 54¢	$12.56	$34.04	-$0.13	61% 1479-934 (2413)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$48.98	$4.19	-$3.07	53% 6112-5366 (11478)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$340.26

Value

$457.52

PnL

+$117.27

Record

46%

540-625 (1165)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.95

Value

$121.3

PnL

+$6.05

Record

55%

191-155 (346)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$121.13

Value

$98.13

PnL

-$6.36

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

Both legs:

Yes$48.5449.5¢+$2.38

No$53.8354.9¢-$8.73

241532532432<$100

Invested

$12.56

Value

$34.04

PnL

-$0.13

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$48.98

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$3.07

Record

53%

6112-5366 (11478)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.