Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $426 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$425.93
-$0.23
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $383.11 | $366.36 | -$16.75 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.6¢ | $265.48 | $248.75 | -$16.73 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $117.63 | $117.61 | -$0.02 | |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $58.03 | $56.01 | -$0.23 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.57 | $3.57 | +$0 | 47% 67-77 (144) |
Invested
$383.11
Value
$366.36
PnL
-$16.75
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
Both legs:
Istaroth<$100Invested
$58.03
Value
$56.01
PnL
-$0.23
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
67-77 (144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.