Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 26?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 83¢ · $274 held · ends Oct 26

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$274.35

Combined PnL

-$22.45

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 83¢

+48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$274.35

Total Shares439

Combined PnL-$22.45

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Yesavg 59.3¢	$125.14	$117.2	-$3.17	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Yesavg 57¢	$133.67	$113.73	-$19.93	56% 674-537 (1211)
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$18	$19.4	+$1.4	58% 976-708 (1684)
CE 0xce0b...b974<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$19.25	$18.2	-$1.05	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$5.52	$5.82	+$0.3	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$125.14

Value

$117.2

PnL

-$3.17

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Yes

Invested

$133.67

Value

$113.73

PnL

-$19.93

Record

56%

674-537 (1211)

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

976-708 (1684)

0xce0b...b974<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.25

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$1.05

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.