Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 28?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 41¢ · $309 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$308.75
$1.4
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 40.6¢ | $268.26 | $271.23 | +$2.97 | 52% 544-497 (1041) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 58.8¢ | $40.84 | $37.52 | -$1.57 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.