Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $629 held · ends Oct 27

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$628.92

Combined PnL

-$24.9

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 52.5¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$460.18

Total Shares1,070

Combined PnL-$25.4

No2 traders

Total Value$168.73

Total Shares301

Combined PnL+$0.5

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 44.6¢	$297.8	$286.81	-$10.99	46% 546-630 (1176)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 47¢	$174.81	$159.93	-$14.88	50% 1615-1608 (3223)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 56¢	$143.67	$143.67	-$2.57	55% 202-166 (368)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$21.99	$25.06	+$3.07	61% 1498-945 (2443)
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$13.44	$13.44	+$0.47	62% 1426-863 (2289)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$297.8

Value

$286.81

PnL

-$10.99

Record

46%

546-630 (1176)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$174.81

Value

$159.93

PnL

-$14.88

Record

50%

1615-1608 (3223)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$143.67

Value

$143.67

PnL

-$2.57

Record

55%

202-166 (368)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$21.99

Value

$25.06

PnL

+$3.07

Record

61%

1498-945 (2443)

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$0.47

Record

62%

1426-863 (2289)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.