Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 27?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $306 held · ends Oct 27

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$306.11

Combined PnL

$21.49

Smart Money Entry

22.4¢ → 9.5¢

-58% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$166.5

Total Shares584

Combined PnL+$35.41

No3 traders

Total Value$139.61

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$13.91

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$129.53	$161.81	+$32.28	48% 505-558 (1063)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$81.4	$69.65	-$11.75	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$64.31	$61.41	-$1.74	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$8.97	$8.54	-$0.43	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.5¢	$1.56	$4.69	+$3.12	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$129.53

Value

$161.81

PnL

+$32.28

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$81.4

Value

$69.65

PnL

-$11.75

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$64.31

Value

$61.41

PnL

-$1.74

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$0.43

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$3.12

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.