Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 27?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $509 held · ends Oct 27

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$509.24

Combined PnL

$7.16

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 64¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$159.58

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.97

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$3.84

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$299.71	$329.69	+$29.98	48% 505-558 (1063)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.6¢	$223.19	$213.9	-$9.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.8¢	$76.52	$115.79	+$39.27
balthazar<$100	Noavg 67.6¢	$67.6	$83.5	+$15.9	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$45.16	$42.3	-$2.85	50% 1585-1572 (3157)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75¢	$21.49	$20.01	-$0.62	49% 269-278 (547)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.5¢	$22.43	$18.48	-$3.96	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$15.2	$13.77	-$1.43	47% 68-78 (146)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.1¢	$1.38	$1.49	+$0.11	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$299.71

Value

$329.69

PnL

+$29.98

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Both legs:

No$223.1963.6¢-$9.29

Yes$76.5225.8¢+$39.27

balthazar<$100

Invested

$67.6

Value

$83.5

PnL

+$15.9

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$45.16

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$2.85

Record

50%

1585-1572 (3157)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$21.49

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.62

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.43

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$3.96

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$13.77

PnL

-$1.43

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.49

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.