Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 68¢ · $134 held · ended Oct 26

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$134.24

Combined PnL

$22.99

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$107.45

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$20.45

No2 traders

Total Value$26.79

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$2.54

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 61.4¢	$88.84	$100.18	+$14.91	53% 5695-4971 (10666)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$22.58	$24.66	+$2.07	61% 1454-917 (2371)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$7.86	$7.27	+$5.54	57% 12146-9242 (21388)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$1.67	$2.13	+$0.47	62% 18410-11080 (29490)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$88.84

Value

$100.18

PnL

+$14.91

Record

53%

5695-4971 (10666)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$22.58

Value

$24.66

PnL

+$2.07

Record

61%

1454-917 (2371)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.86

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$5.54

Record

57%

12146-9242 (21388)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.47

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.