Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 26?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $930 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$929.64
$30.43
83.4¢ → 78¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $599.36 | $614.9 | +$15.54 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 80.9¢ | $152.36 | $162.81 | +$10.45 | 55% 152-125 (277) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $67.3 | $50.27 | -$1.02 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $45.03 | $49.31 | +$4.27 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $38.59 | $38.26 | -$0.21 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $12.71 | $14.09 | +$1.38 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$599.36
Value
$614.9
PnL
+$15.54
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
Invested
$152.36
Value
$162.81
PnL
+$10.45
Record
55%
152-125 (277)
Invested
$67.3
Value
$50.27
PnL
-$1.02
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
Invested
$45.03
Value
$49.31
PnL
+$4.27
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$38.59
Value
$38.26
PnL
-$0.21
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$12.71
Value
$14.09
PnL
+$1.38
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.