Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $610 held · ends Oct 25

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$609.78

Combined PnL

-$45.71

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 59¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$568.27

Total Shares992

Combined PnL-$41.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$41.51

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$4.08

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 61.3¢	$413.14	$384.4	-$28.74	48% 481-527 (1008)
HE hello.67	Noavg 60.3¢	$174.82	$165.16	-$9.66	50% 1550-1521 (3071)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.9¢	$45.59	$41.51	-$4.08	55% 105-85 (190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$24.88	$17.88	-$1.98	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$37.84	$0.83	-$1.25	56% 3178-2517 (5695)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$413.14

Value

$384.4

PnL

-$28.74

Record

48%

481-527 (1008)

hello.67

Invested

$174.82

Value

$165.16

PnL

-$9.66

Record

50%

1550-1521 (3071)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.59

Value

$41.51

PnL

-$4.08

Record

55%

105-85 (190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.88

Value

$17.88

PnL

-$1.98

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$37.84

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$1.25

Record

56%

3178-2517 (5695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.