Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on October 27?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$430.38

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 67¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,401

Combined PnL-$435.21

No3 traders

Total Value$29.53

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$4.83

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 60¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$435.73	50% 1585-1572 (3157)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 56.7¢	$916.36	$999.11	+$82.75	52% 538-490 (1028)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.7¢	$609.67	$795.38	+$185.71
└ No leg	Noavg 39.1¢	$306.7	$203.73	-$102.96
balthazarARB<$100	Noavg 39.4¢	$146.07	$142.35	-$3.72	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
└ No leg	Noavg 39.4¢	$106.56	$112.33	+$5.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77¢	$39.51	$30.02	-$9.49
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 62.7¢	$108.34	$104.26	-$2.21	49% 269-278 (547)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.7¢	$65.35	$60.99	-$4.35
└ No leg	Noavg 39.8¢	$41.54	$43.27	+$2.14
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$12.39	$12.88	+$0.49	47% 68-78 (146)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Noavg 37.8¢	$8.65	$12.13	+$3.48	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 70.7¢	$10.95	$11.47	+$0.52	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$3.66	$4.51	+$0.85	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$2,044.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$435.73

Record

50%

1585-1572 (3157)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$916.36

Value

$999.11

PnL

+$82.75

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

Both legs:

Yes$609.6756.7¢+$185.71

No$306.739.1¢-$102.96

balthazarARB<$100

Invested

$146.07

Value

$142.35

PnL

-$3.72

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Both legs:

Invested

$108.34

Value

$104.26

PnL

-$2.21

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

Yes$65.3562.7¢-$4.35

No$41.5439.8¢+$2.14

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$0.49

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

AJSVCTR<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$3.48

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.95

Value

$11.47

PnL

+$0.52

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.85

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.