Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 25?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 99¢ · $364 held · ended Oct 25

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$364.45

Combined PnL

-$80.27

Smart Money Entry

26.3¢ → 98.5¢

+275% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$253.84

Total Shares677

Combined PnL-$62.07

No4 traders

Total Value$110.61

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$18.21

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 25.8¢	$173.15	$248.68	-$62.25	47% 499-555 (1054)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 45.4¢	$113.11	$110.01	-$1.82	52% 269-246 (515)
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100	Yesavg 95.7¢	$4.97	$5.16	+$0.19	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 28.9¢	$9.34	$0.4	-$8.93	56% 3416-2671 (6087)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Noavg 98¢	$6.93	$0.12	-$6.81	36% 13086-22900 (35986)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.73	$0.08	-$0.65	38% 67-108 (175)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$173.15

Value

$248.68

PnL

-$62.25

Record

47%

499-555 (1054)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$113.11

Value

$110.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

52%

269-246 (515)

0x005e...6d8e<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.19

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$8.93

Record

56%

3416-2671 (6087)

AJSVCTR<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$6.81

Record

36%

13086-22900 (35986)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.65

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.