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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoYesNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on October 25?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$258.58
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,086
Combined PnL-$258.58
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 43%No — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $53.21 | — | -$188.62 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $52.31 | — | -$69.96 | 55% 151-124 (275) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1583-1568 (3151) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 10604-8367 (18971) |
HI HighTempTation<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | — | — | +$0 | 99% 598-1 (599) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$53.21
Value
—
PnL
-$188.62
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$52.31
Value
—
PnL
-$69.96
Record
55%
151-124 (275)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1583-1568 (3151)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
10604-8367 (18971)
HI
HighTempTation<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
598-1 (599)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x843431a9...4320eb
Slug
highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-october-25-2026-18c