Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 26?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 57¢ · $762 held · ends Oct 26

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$762.27

Combined PnL

-$3.59

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 57¢

+27% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$167.71

Total Shares342

Combined PnL-$6.02

No3 traders

Total Value$74.42

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$2.43

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 35.4¢	$324.39	$450.8	+$59.16	47% 504-558 (1062)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.4¢	$216.48	$336.2	+$52.49
└ No leg	Noavg 42.4¢	$107.92	$114.59	+$6.68
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 44.6¢	$147.5	$162.1	-$5.24	54% 146-122 (268)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$70.41	$69.35	-$0.19	50% 269-269 (538)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$31.89	$38.14	+$6.24
└ No leg	Noavg 54.3¢	$37.65	$31.21	-$6.43
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$13.48	$56.27	+$1.22	49% 66-70 (136)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$14.95	$16.02	+$1.07	50% 1582-1563 (3145)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$47.89	$5.6	-$0.78	54% 4489-3820 (8309)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$1.99	$2.13	+$0.14	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$324.39

Value

$450.8

PnL

+$59.16

Record

47%

504-558 (1062)

Both legs:

Yes$216.4835.4¢+$52.49

No$107.9242.4¢+$6.68

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$147.5

Value

$162.1

PnL

-$5.24

Record

54%

146-122 (268)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$70.41

Value

$69.35

PnL

-$0.19

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

Both legs:

Yes$31.8946¢+$6.24

No$37.6554.3¢-$6.43

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$13.48

Value

$56.27

PnL

+$1.22

Record

49%

66-70 (136)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$14.95

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$1.07

Record

50%

1582-1563 (3145)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.89

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.