Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C or higher on October 26?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $1 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.67
-$29.63
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 33%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.05 | $0.11 | -$4.94 | 35% 233-442 (675) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.05 | $0.11 | -$4.94 | 34% 288-550 (838) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.05 | $0.11 | -$4.94 | 31% 148-322 (470) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.05 | $0.11 | -$4.94 | 33% 172-355 (527) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.05 | $0.11 | -$4.94 | 35% 286-525 (811) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.05 | $0.11 | -$4.94 | 34% 259-509 (768) |
Invested
$5.05
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.94
Record
35%
233-442 (675)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.94
Record
34%
288-550 (838)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.94
Record
31%
148-322 (470)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.94
Record
33%
172-355 (527)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.94
Record
35%
286-525 (811)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.94
Record
34%
259-509 (768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.