Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 26?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $358 held · ends Oct 26

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$357.77

Combined PnL

-$1.35

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 97¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$356.92

Total Shares358

Combined PnL-$0.89

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.85

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.45

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$55.36	-$0.14	34% 273-519 (792)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$55.36	-$0.14	33% 157-325 (482)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$55.36	-$0.14	31% 133-292 (425)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$55.36	-$0.14	35% 218-411 (629)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.47	$55.36	-$0.12	35% 269-495 (764)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$55.36	-$0.14	34% 243-478 (721)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.93	-$0.01	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.93	$4.86	-$0.07	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$1.31	$0.85	-$0.45	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

34%

273-519 (792)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

33%

157-325 (482)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

31%

133-292 (425)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

35%

218-411 (629)

akroll<$100

Invested

$55.47

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$0.12

Record

35%

269-495 (764)

klli27<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$55.36

PnL

-$0.14

Record

34%

243-478 (721)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$0.01

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.45

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.