Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $518 held · ends Oct 26

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$518.48

Combined PnL

-$7.23

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 77.7¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$427.63

Total Shares489

Combined PnL-$15.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$90.86

Total Shares457

Combined PnL+$7.85

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 81.7¢	$199.31	$196.08	-$3.23	49% 269-276 (545)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 84¢	$150.48	$143.52	-$6.96	55% 151-124 (275)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$81.51	$88.87	+$7.36	56% 666-523 (1189)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$59	$56.07	-$2.93	63% 15568-9006 (24574)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85¢	$33.92	$31.95	-$1.96	56% 10604-8367 (18971)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$1.5	$1.99	+$0.49	54% 4556-3891 (8447)

Istaroth

Invested

$199.31

Value

$196.08

PnL

-$3.23

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$150.48

Value

$143.52

PnL

-$6.96

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.51

Value

$88.87

PnL

+$7.36

Record

56%

666-523 (1189)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59

Value

$56.07

PnL

-$2.93

Record

63%

15568-9006 (24574)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.92

Value

$31.95

PnL

-$1.96

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.49

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.5%

77.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.