Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 26?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 56¢ · $592 held · ends Oct 26

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$591.65

Combined PnL

$20.5

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 56.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$119.11

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$25.73

No8 traders

Total Value$189.41

Total Shares362

Combined PnL+$46.23

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$290.04	$283.13	-$2.46	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.3¢	$122.47	$148.64	+$26.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.6¢	$163.02	$134.49	-$28.64
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Yesavg 57.9¢	$144.07	$118.16	-$25.92	56% 674-537 (1211)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$21.11	$29.16	+$8.05	31% 133-292 (425)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$21.66	$29.16	+$7.5	35% 218-411 (629)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$21.66	$29.16	+$7.5	35% 269-495 (764)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$20.55	$29.16	+$8.61	33% 157-325 (482)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 37.6¢	$20.89	$29.16	+$8.27	34% 273-519 (792)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$21.11	$29.16	+$8.05	34% 243-478 (721)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$12.22	$10.5	-$1.72	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.97	$3.93	-$0.04	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$0.76	$0.95	+$0.19	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$290.04

Value

$283.13

PnL

-$2.46

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$122.4743.3¢+$26.18

Yes$163.0257.6¢-$28.64

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Yes

Invested

$144.07

Value

$118.16

PnL

-$25.92

Record

56%

674-537 (1211)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Invested

$21.11

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$8.05

Record

31%

133-292 (425)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$21.66

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$7.5

Record

35%

218-411 (629)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$21.66

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$7.5

Record

35%

269-495 (764)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Invested

$20.55

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$8.61

Record

33%

157-325 (482)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$20.89

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$8.27

Record

34%

273-519 (792)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$21.11

Value

$29.16

PnL

+$8.05

Record

34%

243-478 (721)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$12.22

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$1.72

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.19

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.