Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $417 held · ends Oct 26

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$417.39

Combined PnL

$8.48

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 81.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$377.21

Total Shares467

Combined PnL+$7.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.18

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$1.02

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 76.9¢	$286.14	$285.64	-$0.5	55% 513-418 (931)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$81.6	$80.01	-$1.34	50% 269-269 (538)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$36.96	$37.68	+$0.72	58% 917-667 (1584)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 66¢	$68.25	$11.56	+$9.3	54% 4489-3820 (8309)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$4.79	$2.5	+$0.29	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$286.14

Value

$285.64

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

513-418 (931)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$81.6

Value

$80.01

PnL

-$1.34

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.96

Value

$37.68

PnL

+$0.72

Record

58%

917-667 (1584)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$68.25

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$9.3

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.79

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.29

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.