Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 26?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $468 held · ends Oct 26

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$468.13

Combined PnL

-$19.91

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 98.6¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$468.13

Total Shares491

Combined PnL-$19.91

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$84.28	$83.57	-$0.71	47% 68-78 (146)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$55.3	$52.49	-$2.81	31% 133-292 (425)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$52.49	-$3	34% 243-478 (721)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$52.49	-$3	34% 273-519 (792)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$52.49	-$3	35% 269-495 (764)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$52.49	-$3	33% 157-325 (482)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.49	$52.49	-$3	35% 218-411 (629)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$49.05	$47.25	-$1.8	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$21.93	$22.34	+$0.41	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$84.28

Value

$83.57

PnL

-$0.71

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$55.3

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$2.81

Record

31%

133-292 (425)

klli27<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$3

Record

34%

243-478 (721)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$3

Record

34%

273-519 (792)

akroll<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$3

Record

35%

269-495 (764)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$3

Record

33%

157-325 (482)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$3

Record

35%

218-411 (629)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$49.05

Value

$47.25

PnL

-$1.8

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.93

Value

$22.34

PnL

+$0.41

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.