Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 25?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $670 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$670.34
$10.96
84.7¢ → 80.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 84.8¢ | $542.28 | $562.95 | +$11.08 | 54% 467-405 (872) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $60.9 | $61.6 | -$2.1 | 55% 105-85 (190) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.3¢ | $46.84 | $25.78 | +$2.38 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20.4 | $20 | -$0.4 | 57% 263-196 (459) |
Invested
$542.28
Value
$562.95
PnL
+$11.08
Record
54%
467-405 (872)
Invested
$60.9
Value
$61.6
PnL
-$2.1
Record
55%
105-85 (190)
Invested
$46.84
Value
$25.78
PnL
+$2.38
Record
65%
6460-3412 (9872)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.4
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.4
Record
57%
263-196 (459)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.