Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 27?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 25¢ · $500 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$499.54
-$250.99
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $512.06 | $257.6 | -$254.46 | 52% 526-483 (1009) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $145.22 | $142.22 | -$2.35 | 51% 269-258 (527) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.7¢ | $101.94 | $104.53 | +$2.58 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $42.54 | $37.69 | -$4.93 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $81.64 | $84.29 | +$2.65 | 63% 13467-7784 (21251) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $10.86 | $11.76 | +$0.9 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.68 | -$0.08 | 51% 4438-4219 (8657) |
Invested
$512.06
Value
$257.6
PnL
-$254.46
Record
52%
526-483 (1009)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$145.22
Value
$142.22
PnL
-$2.35
Record
51%
269-258 (527)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$81.64
Value
$84.29
PnL
+$2.65
Record
63%
13467-7784 (21251)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0.9
Record
36%
13289-23211 (36500)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
4438-4219 (8657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.