Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
3 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$37.23
64.9¢ → 68.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$35.78 | 50% 1575-1562 (3137) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 64.6¢ | $726.72 | $667.47 | -$23.07 | 51% 269-258 (527) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64.6¢ | $431.32 | $420.5 | -$10.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.1¢ | $247.9 | $246.97 | -$12.24 | |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $452.59 | $489.98 | +$37.38 | 52% 526-483 (1009) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $366.05 | $375.33 | +$9.28 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 27.9¢ | $86.54 | $114.64 | +$28.1 | |
 balthazarARB<$100 | Noavg 34.9¢ | $49.17 | $46.27 | -$2.9 | 63% 13467-7784 (21251) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.9¢ | $28.77 | $25.57 | -$3.2 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $20.7 | +$0.3 | |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $20.42 | $19.04 | -$1.38 | 49% 66-68 (134) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.4¢ | $6.24 | $6.18 | -$0.06 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
Invested
$1,258.58
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$35.78
Record
50%
1575-1562 (3137)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$726.72
Value
$667.47
PnL
-$23.07
Record
51%
269-258 (527)
Both legs:
Invested
$452.59
Value
$489.98
PnL
+$37.38
Record
52%
526-483 (1009)
Both legs:
balthazarARB<$100Invested
$49.17
Value
$46.27
PnL
-$2.9
Record
63%
13467-7784 (21251)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.42
Value
$19.04
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
66-68 (134)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.18
PnL
-$0.06
Record
36%
13289-23211 (36500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.