Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$277.39

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 50¢

-26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,292

Combined PnL-$190.43

Yes2 traders

Total Value$406.83

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL-$86.96

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 67.9¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$194.41	50% 1583-1567 (3150)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 35¢	$397.83	$397.95	-$90.83	52% 536-490 (1026)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$96.8	$93.88	-$1.26	49% 269-276 (545)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$51.88	$61.02	+$8.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.5¢	$42.7	$32.86	-$9.99
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$11.17	$15.15	+$3.98	47% 67-77 (144)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$11.88	$8.87	+$3.87	56% 10604-8367 (18971)

hello.67

Invested

$2,221.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$194.41

Record

50%

1583-1567 (3150)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$397.83

Value

$397.95

PnL

-$90.83

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$96.8

Value

$93.88

PnL

-$1.26

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Both legs:

No$51.8855.3¢+$8.72

Yes$42.745.5¢-$9.99

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.17

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$3.98

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.88

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$3.87

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.