Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 26?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$613.86
-$2.18
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $386.88 | $390.52 | +$3.63 | 52% 525-482 (1007) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.6¢ | $210.67 | $212.19 | +$1.51 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $176.21 | $178.33 | +$2.12 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $149.5 | $140.08 | -$3.9 | 51% 269-254 (523) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.2¢ | $101.2 | $102.38 | +$1.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $39.73 | $37.7 | -$5.07 | |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $85.44 | $83.26 | -$2.18 | 50% 1574-1560 (3134) |
Invested
$386.88
Value
$390.52
PnL
+$3.63
Record
52%
525-482 (1007)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$149.5
Value
$140.08
PnL
-$3.9
Record
51%
269-254 (523)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.44
Value
$83.26
PnL
-$2.18
Record
50%
1574-1560 (3134)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.