Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $287 held · ends Oct 26

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$286.55

Combined PnL

-$22.48

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 61¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$275.57

Total Shares448

Combined PnL-$24.92

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.98

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$2.44

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 66.7¢	$293.88	$268.96	-$24.92	53% 504-456 (960)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$21.78	$8.83	+$1.67	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.63	$6.61	+$0	57% 263-196 (459)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.37	$2.14	+$0.77	56% 3178-2517 (5695)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$293.88

Value

$268.96

PnL

-$24.92

Record

53%

504-456 (960)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.78

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$1.67

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.61

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

263-196 (459)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.77

Record

56%

3178-2517 (5695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.