Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 25?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $453 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$453.2
$13.28
62¢ → 63¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $409.43 | $416.94 | +$14.13 | 47% 491-543 (1034) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $36.26 | $36.26 | -$0.85 | 55% 121-99 (220) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.