Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 88¢ · $763 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$763.43
$220.86
55.3¢ → 88¢
+59% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $326.42 | $568.9 | +$242.48 | 46% 544-629 (1173) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 66.3¢ | $128.31 | $176.1 | +$0.38 | 55% 200-166 (366) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 26.3¢ | $40.44 | $18.43 | -$22 | 61% 1497-943 (2440) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.