Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $850 held · ends Oct 26

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$849.87

Combined PnL

$3.49

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 83.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$460.4

Total Shares578

Combined PnL+$9.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$182.04

Total Shares791

Combined PnL-$6.42

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 84¢	$217.35	$217.35	+$0	61% 665-423 (1088)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$212.08	$207.43	-$3.21	49% 269-276 (545)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.4¢	$158.54	$149.35	-$9.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.1¢	$52.03	$58.08	+$6.05
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$196.38	$182.04	-$6.42	48% 505-558 (1063)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 76.4¢	$151.33	$142.69	+$0.28	55% 151-124 (275)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 76.1¢	$206.7	$93.03	+$9.94	54% 4513-3843 (8356)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.64	$7.33	-$0.31	47% 67-77 (144)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$217.35

Value

$217.35

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

665-423 (1088)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$212.08

Value

$207.43

PnL

-$3.21

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Both legs:

No$158.5476.4¢-$9.25

Yes$52.0325.1¢+$6.05

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$196.38

Value

$182.04

PnL

-$6.42

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$151.33

Value

$142.69

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$206.7

Value

$93.03

PnL

+$9.94

Record

54%

4513-3843 (8356)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.64

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.