Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 26?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$123.86

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 72.5¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,511

Combined PnL+$123.86

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 49.6¢	$381.32	$508.13	+$109.58	48% 505-558 (1063)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Yesavg 65.4¢	$287.97	$299.54	+$11.57	56% 666-523 (1189)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 64¢	$151.92	$159.04	+$3.56	55% 151-124 (275)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 66.8¢	$61.97	$59.67	-$0.78	49% 269-276 (545)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$6.5	$6.8	+$0.3	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$7.13	$6.77	-$0.36	47% 67-77 (144)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$381.32

Value

$508.13

PnL

+$109.58

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Yes

Invested

$287.97

Value

$299.54

PnL

+$11.57

Record

56%

666-523 (1189)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$151.92

Value

$159.04

PnL

+$3.56

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.97

Value

$59.67

PnL

-$0.78

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.13

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.36

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.