Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 26?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 79¢ · $552 held · ends Oct 26

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$552.29

Combined PnL

$1.15

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 79¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$549.65

Total Shares650

Combined PnL+$0.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.64

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0.76

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 79.7¢	$201.54	$198.46	-$3.07	48% 505-558 (1063)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 86.5¢	$175.51	$182.7	+$7.19	56% 674-537 (1211)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$76.35	$73.33	-$3.02	50% 1585-1572 (3157)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$69.22	$68.17	-$0.92	49% 269-278 (547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$21.07	$18.63	-$0.94	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$53.83	$8.35	+$1.15	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$1.88	$2.64	+$0.76	47% 68-78 (146)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$201.54

Value

$198.46

PnL

-$3.07

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$175.51

Value

$182.7

PnL

+$7.19

Record

56%

674-537 (1211)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$76.35

Value

$73.33

PnL

-$3.02

Record

50%

1585-1572 (3157)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$69.22

Value

$68.17

PnL

-$0.92

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.07

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$0.94

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$53.83

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0.76

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.