Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 25?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $194 held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$193.9

Combined PnL

-$147.66

Smart Money Entry

23.2¢ → 1.3¢

-94% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$113.29

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$0.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$80.6

Total Shares961

Combined PnL-$146.76

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$81.74	$77.13	-$1.07	54% 264-225 (489)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 24.1¢	$202.69	$69.44	-$133.25	52% 514-469 (983)
1F 0x1f85...7b02<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$21.51	$21.87	+$0.36	—
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 95¢	$14.29	$14.29	-$0.19	55% 499-405 (904)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$11.36	$5.75	-$9.85	56% 121-94 (215)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$75.69	$5.42	-$3.66	56% 3384-2637 (6021)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$81.74

Value

$77.13

PnL

-$1.07

Record

54%

264-225 (489)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$202.69

Value

$69.44

PnL

-$133.25

Record

52%

514-469 (983)

0x1f85...7b02<$100

Invested

$21.51

Value

$21.87

PnL

+$0.36

Record

—

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$14.29

Value

$14.29

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

499-405 (904)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.36

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$9.85

Record

56%

121-94 (215)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.69

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$3.66

Record

56%

3384-2637 (6021)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4045.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

4145.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.