Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 27?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 28¢ · $317 held · ends Oct 27

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$316.8

Combined PnL

$48.4

Smart Money Entry

23¢ → 28.5¢

+24% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$219.32

Total Shares716

Combined PnL+$54.62

No4 traders

Total Value$97.48

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$6.22

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 24.5¢	$124.04	$172.17	+$48.13	52% 544-497 (1041)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$40.66	$47.15	+$6.49	56% 171-137 (308)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$49.71	$44.5	-$5.21	61% 1454-917 (2371)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77¢	$27.66	$26.01	-$0.98	43% 269-355 (624)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.32	$15.41	+$1.09	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$12.68	$11.56	-$1.12	57% 12146-9242 (21388)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$124.04

Value

$172.17

PnL

+$48.13

Record

52%

544-497 (1041)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.66

Value

$47.15

PnL

+$6.49

Record

56%

171-137 (308)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$49.71

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$5.21

Record

61%

1454-917 (2371)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$27.66

Value

$26.01

PnL

-$0.98

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.32

Value

$15.41

PnL

+$1.09

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$1.12

Record

57%

12146-9242 (21388)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.