Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 27?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 49¢ · $370 held · ends Oct 27

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$370.32

Combined PnL

-$21.53

Smart Money Entry

22.4¢ → 49¢

+119% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$167.5

Total Shares811

Combined PnL-$20.66

No1 trader

Total Value$18.59

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.87

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$170.57	$149.1	-$21.47	52% 555-509 (1064)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$111.72	$96.85	-$14.86	61% 1497-943 (2440)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.2¢	$99.94	$68.65	-$31.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.5¢	$11.78	$28.2	+$16.43
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$108.33	$87.37	-$13.76	36% 273-477 (750)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.2¢	$74.79	$65.77	-$9.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.1¢	$25.6	$21.6	-$4.03
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$33.48	$18.59	-$0.87	53% 6132-5384 (11516)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.9¢	$43.17	$18.4	+$0.81	57% 12548-9494 (22042)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$170.57

Value

$149.1

PnL

-$21.47

Record

52%

555-509 (1064)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$111.72

Value

$96.85

PnL

-$14.86

Record

61%

1497-943 (2440)

Both legs:

No$99.9474.2¢-$31.29

Yes$11.7820.5¢+$16.43

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$108.33

Value

$87.37

PnL

-$13.76

Record

36%

273-477 (750)

Both legs:

No$74.7976.2¢-$9.73

Yes$25.626.1¢-$4.03

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$33.48

Value

$18.59

PnL

-$0.87

Record

53%

6132-5384 (11516)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.17

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$0.81

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.