Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $687 held · ends Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$686.76

Combined PnL

$517.41

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 99.7¢

+177% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$634.71

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$514.43

No2 traders

Total Value$52.05

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$2.99

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 35.7¢	$154.46	$398.39	+$276.36	48% 505-558 (1063)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 42¢	$42.28	$224.9	+$218.48	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$49.66	$48.83	-$0.22	49% 269-278 (547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 67.5¢	$17.98	$11.42	+$19.59	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$3.21	+$3.2	47% 68-78 (146)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$154.46

Value

$398.39

PnL

+$276.36

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$42.28

Value

$224.9

PnL

+$218.48

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$49.66

Value

$48.83

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.98

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$19.59

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$3.2

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.