Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $523 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$522.53

Combined PnL

$0.77

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 99.9¢

+41% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$510.53

Total Shares694

Combined PnL-$2.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$3.3

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 70.9¢	$421.33	$416.02	-$5.32	48% 505-558 (1063)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$80.36	$77.01	-$0.52	49% 269-278 (547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$9.98	$11.54	+$1.56	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$6.6	$9	+$2.4	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$4.22	$5.97	+$1.75	47% 68-78 (146)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.1	$3	+$0.9	55% 152-125 (277)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$421.33

Value

$416.02

PnL

-$5.32

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$80.36

Value

$77.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$1.56

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

PnL

+$2.4

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$1.75

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

152-125 (277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.