Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 27?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.6K
$97.5
60.8¢ → 66.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 61¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$84.63 | 50% 1585-1572 (3157) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 60.8¢ | $266.28 | $257.16 | -$4 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 59¢ | $216.27 | $232.77 | +$16.5 | 52% 538-490 (1028) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $4.27 | $4.51 | +$0.25 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.18 | +$0.13 | 54% 4740-4091 (8831) |
Invested
$2,064.85
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$84.63
Record
50%
1585-1572 (3157)
IstarothInvested
$266.28
Value
$257.16
PnL
-$4
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$216.27
Value
$232.77
PnL
+$16.5
Record
52%
538-490 (1028)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.51
PnL
+$0.25
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.18
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
4740-4091 (8831)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.