Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 26?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$355.71
$3.4
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $227.65 | $224.61 | -$2.08 | 54% 264-227 (491) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.8¢ | $147.8 | $154.98 | +$7.18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $78.86 | $69.63 | -$9.26 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 67.2¢ | $127.7 | $131.1 | +$3.4 | 55% 121-99 (220) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.