Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 26?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $391 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$390.73
$111.57
58.6¢ → 99¢
+69% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Yesavg 62.1¢ | $274.27 | $241.02 | -$12.17 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $137.63 | $136.19 | +$123.98 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $9.01 | $13.51 | -$0.25 | 55% 152-125 (277) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.