Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 25?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 58¢ · $140 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$139.74
$-1.5K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 60.9¢ | $1.6K | $106.23 | $-1.5K | 50% 1560-1532 (3092) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $24.01 | $25.24 | +$1.24 | 56% 3214-2537 (5751) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $5.46 | $8.27 | +$1.4 | 56% 119-92 (211) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.