Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 32¢ · $490 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$490.44
$46.72
29.7¢ → 32¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $272.96 | $309.5 | +$36.54 | 52% 551-504 (1055) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $140.05 | $138.56 | -$0.77 | 38% 273-442 (715) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.6¢ | $90.86 | $94.22 | +$3.31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $48.41 | $44.34 | -$4.08 | |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $28.51 | $29.43 | +$0.92 | 55% 191-155 (346) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 60.6¢ | $169.98 | $12.95 | +$9.26 | 53% 6112-5366 (11478) |
Invested
$272.96
Value
$309.5
PnL
+$36.54
Record
52%
551-504 (1055)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$140.05
Value
$138.56
PnL
-$0.77
Record
38%
273-442 (715)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.51
Value
$29.43
PnL
+$0.92
Record
55%
191-155 (346)
Invested
$169.98
Value
$12.95
PnL
+$9.26
Record
53%
6112-5366 (11478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.