Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $92 held · ends Oct 26

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$92.44

Combined PnL

-$37.66

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$50.2

Total Shares427

Combined PnL-$42.35

No4 traders

Total Value$42.24

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$4.69

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$92.4	$50.07	-$42.33	48% 505-558 (1063)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77¢	$17.26	$17.22	-$0	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$10.31	$10.19	-$0.12	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$23.34	$7.73	+$3.42	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78¢	$5.71	$7.11	+$1.39	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$0.13	-$0.02	63% 16296-9616 (25912)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.4

Value

$50.07

PnL

-$42.33

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$17.26

Value

$17.22

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.31

Value

$10.19

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.34

Value

$7.73

PnL

+$3.42

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$1.39

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.