Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 26?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 25¢ · $521 held · ends Oct 26

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$521.23

Combined PnL

$80.74

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 24.5¢

-31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$348.7

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL+$52.08

No3 traders

Total Value$172.53

Total Shares193

Combined PnL+$28.67

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 37.4¢	$277.72	$319.21	+$41.5	48% 505-558 (1063)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$58.63	$81.19	+$22.56	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$54.39	$53.09	-$1.02	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$31.13	$38.26	+$7.12	47% 68-78 (146)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$24.96	$29.49	+$10.58	54% 4740-4091 (8831)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$277.72

Value

$319.21

PnL

+$41.5

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$58.63

Value

$81.19

PnL

+$22.56

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$54.39

Value

$53.09

PnL

-$1.02

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$31.13

Value

$38.26

PnL

+$7.12

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.96

Value

$29.49

PnL

+$10.58

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.