Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $695 held · ends Oct 26

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$694.63

Combined PnL

$16.91

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 83.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$353.04

Total Shares1,061

Combined PnL+$17.17

No4 traders

Total Value$341.59

Total Shares460

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 28.4¢	$292.14	$344.72	+$16.57	48% 505-558 (1063)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 76¢	$170.38	$165.85	-$4.53	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 72.6¢	$150.98	$153.96	+$2.98	55% 151-124 (275)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$16.73	$18.06	+$1.33	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.1¢	$8.18	$8.32	+$0.6	49% 269-278 (547)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.77	$3.72	-$0.05	47% 68-78 (146)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$292.14

Value

$344.72

PnL

+$16.57

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$170.38

Value

$165.85

PnL

-$4.53

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$150.98

Value

$153.96

PnL

+$2.98

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.73

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$1.33

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.