Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 26?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $231 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$231.14

Combined PnL

$1.09

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$231.14

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$1.09

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 94¢	$75.11	$72.34	-$2.77	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 86¢	$64.02	$67.33	+$3.31	48% 505-558 (1063)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$51.99	$54.29	+$2.3	50% 1585-1572 (3157)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$32.91	$24.68	-$1.65	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98¢	$12.6	$12.5	-$0.1	47% 68-78 (146)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$75.11

Value

$72.34

PnL

-$2.77

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$64.02

Value

$67.33

PnL

+$3.31

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$51.99

Value

$54.29

PnL

+$2.3

Record

50%

1585-1572 (3157)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.91

Value

$24.68

PnL

-$1.65

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.