Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$112.8
-$0.31
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $124.86 | $109.53 | -$5.32 | 44% 269-349 (618) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.8¢ | $70.94 | $69.01 | -$1.99 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $42.22 | $40.52 | -$3.33 | |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.58 | $3.27 | -$0.31 | 46% 88-102 (190) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.