Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $239 held · ends Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$238.74

Combined PnL

$32.48

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 2.1¢

-95% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$199.91

Total Shares335

Combined PnL+$36.88

No2 traders

Total Value$38.83

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$4.41

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR	Yesavg 49.2¢	$87.12	$104.45	-$6.57	54% 469-405 (874)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$40.87	$77.78	+$29.66	60% 347-231 (578)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$20.4	$20	-$0.33	55% 264-213 (477)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$22.45	$18.83	-$4.07	56% 119-92 (211)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.7¢	$72.74	$17.67	+$13.79	56% 3214-2537 (5751)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR

Yes

Invested

$87.12

Value

$104.45

PnL

-$6.57

Record

54%

469-405 (874)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.87

Value

$77.78

PnL

+$29.66

Record

60%

347-231 (578)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.33

Record

55%

264-213 (477)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

$18.83

PnL

-$4.07

Record

56%

119-92 (211)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.74

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$13.79

Record

56%

3214-2537 (5751)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.2%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3027.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

3127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.