Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 27?

Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 27

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$451.84

Combined PnL

-$8.83

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$60.34

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$8.83

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$366.27	$321.78	-$7	38% 273-442 (715)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.4¢	$171.79	$180.19	+$5.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.5¢	$152.97	$141.58	-$12.31
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 43.6¢	$71.21	$69.72	-$1.49	61% 1479-934 (2413)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.6¢	$39.7	$40.04	-$0.57
└ No leg	Noavg 57.7¢	$30.6	$29.68	-$0.92
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$63.29	$60.34	-$8.83	62% 1405-861 (2266)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$366.27

Value

$321.78

PnL

-$7

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

Both legs:

No$171.7953.4¢+$5.31

Yes$152.9747.5¢-$12.31

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.21

Value

$69.72

PnL

-$1.49

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

Both legs:

Invested

$63.29

Value

$60.34

PnL

-$8.83

Record

62%

1405-861 (2266)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.