Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 27?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 24¢ · $323 held · ends Oct 27

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$323

Combined PnL

$33.71

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 23.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$252.05

Total Shares854

Combined PnL+$35.63

No3 traders

Total Value$70.95

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$1.92

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 25.4¢	$212.75	$246.82	+$34.07	52% 538-490 (1028)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75¢	$50.5	$50	-$0.5	49% 269-278 (547)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$12.32	$11.99	-$0.34	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
CE 0xce0b...b974<$100	Noavg 79¢	$10.04	$8.96	-$1.08	—
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$3.67	$5.23	+$1.56	63% 16296-9616 (25912)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$212.75

Value

$246.82

PnL

+$34.07

Record

52%

538-490 (1028)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$12.32

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$0.34

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

0xce0b...b974<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$1.08

Record

—

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$1.56

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.